Greetings and Salutations….

I just read an excellent and lengthy discussion of four possible futures for America. Located over on Alternet, written by Professor Alfred W. McCoy, it postulates four very possible scenarios whereby in a VERY short time America can throw away its position of Global Leadership and end up the same sort of weak backwater that England, Spain and other Empires have become.

Back in the late 70s and early 80s, I came to the conclusion that America was on a path of economic self-destruction that would cause the country to lose much of its power in the world. Frankly, I was amazed that the economic collapse I had postulated had not hit by the early 90s! Somehow or another, like a drug addict surrounded by a loving family of enablers, America has managed to keep stumbling along and has avoided falling into that black pit of self destruction whose seeds were planted in the 70s. Alas, like the recent collapse of the housing market in America, which was made much worse by the artificial support of Magnetar and other investment companies who had a vested interest in keeping the dying corpse going for a little while longer, this denial and propping up will mean that, when America’s inevitable collapse comes, it will be much the worse than it might have been.

The options for collapse that Professor McCoy postulates are all quite dark, and, according to him, inevitable. I wonder, though, is it possible for America to avoid this collapse into one of these examples of the worst possible case for the country? I very much wish I could honestly say yes, but, alas, I also have studied enough history that I understand clearly that every civilization goes through cycles of growth to greatness and collapse into decadence and decay. However, I would hope that it IS possible for America to modify its behavior so as to moderate the fall, and the depth of loss that the country may suffer. Would it be so bad for America to no longer be “THE Superpower” in the world? I think not. For decades now, America has taken on the role of the Policeman Of The World, and, as such, has spent untold trillions of dollars on the economies of other countries, providing military and economic support, and, like most policemen, doing this in spite of the fact that this garners little for the country except pockets of appreciation, and widespread dislike. It is a given, of course, that a bunch of the actions that America has taken over the decades have been overly self-serving, and, we have supported administrations that were pond scum at best and that we should have had nothing to do with at all. People make mistakes and decisions are made on a short-sighted basis rooted in bad information and prejudice. In any case, I would be fine with some OTHER country taking on that role and all the accompanying costs and pain.

what can we, as a society do to ease this collapse? Nothing easy, alas. Americans would have to make some serious sacrifices, and accept both an increase in taxation, and a decrease in services from the government at all levels from the Federal to the Local in order to get out from under this increasing flood of unbearable deficit spending that is crushing us. America would have to pull back from its roll as “policeman to the world”, and, extricate itself from the various foreign entanglements that it is in now. Beyond that, America would have to stop meddling in the affairs of other countries, and, stop trying to control their path through economic and military means. Businesses and investors would have to reconsider their picture of reality. Now, most businesses are run on a terribly short-sighted view – one that hardly extends past the next 90 days. The only thing of importance is to show growth to the investors in the next quarterly report. That view should evolve back to the idea of making a good product, that people want to purchase. It should include realizing the importance of its employees to the company, so keeping them happy and making their workplace a positive place to be is a priority. The bottom line here is that happy employees are productive employees. As for the investors….they (and their proxies, the investment companies and financial advisers) should not insist on constant growth, but, reward high productivity, and long-term viability, even if this means that the profits stay level for many quarters in a row. This insistence that profits must increase by xx% every quarter is insane and unsustainable over the long term. The only thing that grows that fast is Cancer…and we all know how good THAT is.

Is this return to Sanity likely to happen? Alas, I am sorry to say that I do not believe that Americans have the backbone any longer to be truly great, and, so, my answer is “no, it will not” I fear that we will continue on this toboggan run down the hill until we crash into the inevitable stone wall at the bottom, and, end up a sad scattering of debris over the long road of history. Why do I believe this? I look at the trends in today’s society and see signs of it scattered everywhere. For example…on a political basis – At the Federal level, the “compromise” brokered by Pres. Obama with the Republicans over the past day or two, that keeps the the tax cuts for the rich and ultra-rich, and cuts the inheritance tax rates in return for a painfully short extension of unemployment benefits. This is being touted as a great thing, in spite of the fact that it will add billions of dollars to America’s debt over the next couple of years, and, is helping out not the people who really are pumping money into the economy (the middle and lower economic classes) but rather the rich and ultra-rich who will take this money and tuck it away in savings and investments that will have a minimal benefit for America’s economy. On a local basis, we keep seeing news stories about politicians who are lining their own pockets with public funds to the detriment of their constituents, and, decisions made not because of public good, but, for more venal reasons. As a concrete example…a few years ago, the mayor of Knoxville decided that the city needed a convention center. One was built, paid for by some tricky accounting that ended up putting the debt into public bonds and adding millions of dollars to the local debt. It was put downtown, in a location where there was no parking, little mass transit, blocks away from entertainment places and restaurants and, hotels. What has happened since then? Not much, actually. There have been, at best, ONE large event a year at this center. most of the time it has been the site for massively overpriced weddings by the local gentry, and, high school graduations. Actually, the local fairground has had more publicity and productivity as a location for large events than this convention center. So…why did it actually get built? It is the opinion of a lot of Knoxvillians that the only reason it was built was because the mayor got tired of going to the annual Mayor’s Conference, and having to listen to the OTHER mayors brag about the size of THEIR convention center(s), so he decided that HE needed to have one also.

On the business front, as I drive around Knoxville, I see more and more empty store fronts and, in the news, a continual stream of notices that such and such company is closing its local facility and moving production to Mexico/India/China. There have been a few companies opening up or moving to Knoxville, but, they are a drop of water compared to a firehose of loss. The local businesses that are hanging in there are, in many cases, just barely making it. While the recent “Black Friday” sales in the area did see a burst of commerce, I do not think that it was nearly the saving waterfall of money that the merchants were hoping for. I know that, as I drove around Knoxville, I saw far fewer cars in the parking lots of the malls and stores than I would have expected.

I am also hearing more and more discontent from workers about they way they are being treated at work. For example, I know of one local company that, a few years ago was on a strong upward path. They were doing well, and expanding their product line out into related areas. The employees felt that they had some worth to the company, even if they felt they were underpaid and overworked (but, then, I think we all do) Then, alas, as happens, there was a management change, The founder drew back from running the company, and his children took over. On the positive side, the company finally built and moved into a larger building so there was finally enough room to get the work done without falling over each other. However, alas, that was the last good thing, it seems. The attitude of the kids was that they were the only ones that were really working for the company, and, that every other employee was a parasite, and stealing from them at every opportunity by taking product and lazing about instead of doing their job. They also felt that they were the only ones that knew anything about the company, its products, and how to run it efficiently. They were not shy about letting the employees know the level of contempt that they had for them, which did huge amounts to raise morale. Add to that the fact that management got the attitude that the way to make their fortune was to find that “big score”, which lead them to ignore the existing company base. On top of that, a severe drop in quality of their product, and a growing attitude that warranty claims were nothing more than customers trying to steal from them, and so the claims should be automatically denied, and, you end up with what you have today. A company that is barely holding on by its fingernails, and, every day gets closer to having the auction folks show up at the door to tag the stuff in the building and sell it off to try and cover at least some of the debt that the company has taken on.

I wonder when the Chinese auction house will show up on America’s doorstep and how much of a surprise will it be for many of the citizens?

Just to show that I DO think about the original topic of this blog….I believe that America needs to learn from the society of bees. We need to start thinking more about self-sufficiency, and, finding ways to help make our society stronger…rather than flying off on a path that seems attractive, but, will lead to our destruction as individuals and as a society.

Pleasant Dreams

BeeManDave